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Last recorded probability
3%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
3%
24h Change
+0.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JB Pritzker | 0.3% | — | $656K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 12.2% | -0.9pp | $352K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11.3% | -2.1pp | $435K | active |
| JD Vance | 23.1% | — | $460K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 9.8% | +0.5pp | $432K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 0.9% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.6% | +0.1pp | $384K | active |
| Wes Moore | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $300K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.8% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.1% | — | $311K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.4% | — | $223K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.3% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.3% | -0.4pp | $507K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 3.6% | -0.1pp | $350K | active |
| James Talarico | 0.6% | +0.05pp | $807K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.5% | — | $472K | active |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.4% | — | $361K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.7% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.9% | — | $931K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.5% | +0.1pp | $244K | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Stephen Smith | 0.3% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 1.1% | — | $373K | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.3% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.7% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.7% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.3% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.3% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.5% | — | $584K | active |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.7% | — | $858K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $499K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 1.1% | — | $190K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.6% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Andy Beshear | 1.1% | — | $363K | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Donald Trump | 2.5% | +0.8pp | $549K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 96.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)