Politics
LowFresh
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+3.0ppVol $132Closes 18 Aug 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 214 matching politics markets.
Showing 145-180 of 214 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
88%
+3.5ppVol $127Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
-4.0ppVol $106Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
29%
-3.5ppVol $105Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Low-confidence: move is +3.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
1%
-3.8ppVol $105Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +10.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
53%
+10.0ppVol $101Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
+3.0ppVol $96Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
22%
-6.0ppVol $95Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?
Low-confidence: move is +11.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+11.0ppVol $95Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Aly Richards win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +15.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
-15.5ppVol $91Closes 11 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
22%
+3.0ppVol $88Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?
Low-confidence: move is +11.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
15%
-11.0ppVol $87Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
20%
-6.5ppVol $80Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
-8.0ppVol $76Closes 8 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
9%
+7.9ppVol $76Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +5.3pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
8%
+5.3ppVol $76Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Rhode Island in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
26%
-6.5ppVol $76Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
Low-confidence: move is +5.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
14%
-5.2ppVol $75Closes 3 Jan 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+6.0ppVol $74Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
63%
+7.5ppVol $73Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Included because probability moved +7.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
36%
+7.4ppVol $72Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Low-confidence: move is +4.3pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
27%
+4.3ppVol $70Closes 18 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Colorado in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +12.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
24%
-12.0ppVol $65Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Spain snap election called in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
32%
+6.5ppVol $64Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Arkansas in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +15.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
64%
+15.0ppVol $64Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit New Mexico in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +15.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
25%
-15.0ppVol $60Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
19%
-3.5ppVol $58Closes 30 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Weed rescheduled by July 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
4%
+3.4ppVol $56Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?
Included because probability moved -4.1pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
94%
-4.1ppVol $52Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming governor race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.6pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
70%
-3.6ppVol $50Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
16%
-6.0ppVol $50Closes 20 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
13%
-7.5ppVol $50Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?
Low-confidence: move is +11.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
-11.5ppVol $47Closes 1 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
23%
-3.5ppVol $44Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +10.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
28%
-10.5ppVol $43Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +12.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
18%
-12.0ppVol $41Closes 30 Sept 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp385 markets with notable movementCombined activity $2.4M
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