Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
24%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $8KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 97% probability for this outcome, a +12.7pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
97%Recent probability movement (up 12.7pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
97%
24h Change
+12.7pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 23.5pp, from 63% to 86%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
73%
15 Sept 2026, 11:00 UTC
67%
15 Sept 2026, 12:40 UTC
66%
15 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
68%
15 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
86%
17 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
97%
19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 12.7pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Jong Un | 24.0% | +2.5pp | $13K | active |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 96.7% | +12.7pp | $16K | active |
| Vladimir Putin | 64.5% | -1.5pp | $11K | active |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 67.0% | -9.5pp | $3K | active |
| MrBeast | 7.5% | — | $17K | active |
| King Mohammed VI | 6.0% | -8.5pp | $11K | active |
| Changpeng Zhao | 8.5% | -1.0pp | $22K | active |
| Aleksandr Lukashenko | 10.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Lai Ching-te | 3.5% | — | $19K | active |
| Yoon Suk Yeol | 2.3% | — | $28K | active |
| Nick Fuentes | 1.9% | +0.05pp | $14K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 5.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Pope Leo XIV | 4.0% | -0.6pp | $21K | active |
| iShowSpeed | 3.9% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Nicolás Maduro | 4.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ali Khamenei | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Abdel Fattah El-Sisi | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Friedrich Merz | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Maria Corina Machado | 100.0% | +0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Javier Milei | 100.0% | +6.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Xi Jinping | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 100.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Keir Starmer | 100.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Giorgia Meloni | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lula da Silva | 100.0% | +0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC