Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
12%
Limited history-15.7pp
24h activity $315Closes 8 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
86%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
86%
24h Change
+12.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 12.5pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $4K and 24h activity is $1K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elaine Pelino | 85.5% | +12.5pp | $4K | active |
| Aaron Guckian | 11.9% | -15.7pp | $5K | active |
| Ashley Kalus | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $2K | active |
| Robert Raimondo | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $1K | active |
| Jessica de la Cruz | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
Probability sum: 97.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
12%
0%
0%
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