Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
4%
Limited history-1.9pp
24h activity $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
6%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
6%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $10K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diddy | 3.9% | -1.9pp | $13K | active |
| Ryan Salame | 26.5% | -20.0pp | $1K | active |
| Martin Shkreli | 7.5% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 4.3% | — | $28K | active |
| Derek Chauvin | 5.0% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Donald Brodie | 26.5% | +13.0pp | $205 | active |
| Do Kwon | 3.8% | +0.3pp | $14K | active |
| Elon Musk | 1.9% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4.0% | — | $10K | active |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 16.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Himself | 5.3% | — | $17K | active |
| Nicolas Maduro | 5.8% | — | $9K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 16.0% | -0.7pp | $8K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 3.4% | -0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Joe Exotic | 8.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Young Thug | 6.2% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 20.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 4.7% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Roger Stone | 13.0% | -1.0pp | $9K | active |
| Edward Snowden | 4.3% | +0.1pp | $9K | active |
| Julian Assange | 5.8% | -0.05pp | $10K | active |
| Stefan Brodie | 15.0% | +0.5pp | $256 | active |
| Antoine Massey | 1.8% | +0.05pp | $8K | active |
| Roger Ver | 10.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Eric Adams | 8.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Daniel Penny | 20.5% | -1.0pp | $8K | active |
| Bob Menendez | 9.0% | -2.0pp | $9K | active |
| Andrew Tate | 4.7% | -0.1pp | $2K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
4%
27%
8%
4%
5%
27%