Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
11%
Limited history+0.2pp
24h activity $260Closes 20 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
38%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
38%
24h Change
+1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $12K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56-59% | 10.8% | +0.2pp | $28K | active |
| 53-56% | 22.1% | +2.5pp | $16K | active |
| 59-62% | 9.8% | -1.4pp | $27K | active |
| 62%+ | 11.6% | -0.1pp | $53K | active |
| 47-50% | 8.0% | -0.5pp | $23K | active |
| <47% | 6.0% | -0.3pp | $3K | active |
| 50-53% | 37.5% | +1.5pp | $12K | active |
Probability sum: 105.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
11%
22%
10%
12%
8%
6%