EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

16%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCLow-confidence move-5.5pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.

Signal: Low

Current

16%

24h Change

-5.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%22:0019:000:001:002:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 5.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
16.0%
No implied probability
84.0%
Liquidity
$7K
Market Activity
$1K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

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