EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?

9%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+7.9pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 7.9pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

9%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 7.9pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
9.3%
No implied probability
90.7%
Liquidity
$3K
Market Activity
$34K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026. If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

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