Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-7.0ppVol $52Closes 30 Sept 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 35 of 215 matching geopolitics markets.
Showing 181-215 of 215 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
55%
-3.0ppVol $44Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
+1.0ppVol $43Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.1ppVol $43Closes —
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $35Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
6%
Vol $32Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.2ppVol $31Closes 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.05ppVol $30Closes —
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
7%
Vol $29Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
3%
-1.0ppVol $25Closes 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
-2.5ppVol $24Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
23%
-0.5ppVol $24Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Maduro guilty of all counts?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
8%
-2.5ppVol $23Closes 31 Dec 2027
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
5%
-2.0ppVol $20Closes 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
31%
+0.5ppVol $20Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
34%
+0.5ppVol $20Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
31%
+0.5ppVol $19Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-1.0ppVol $18Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
14%
Vol $17Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
11%
Vol $16Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $15Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
69%
Vol $11Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
5%
+0.05ppVol $10Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.4ppVol $10Closes —
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
11%
Vol $10Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.5ppVol $8Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
8%
Vol $8Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
10%
-0.5ppVol $8Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
31%
-4.0ppVol $5Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
António Guterres out by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
25%
-3.5ppVol $3Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
23%
Vol $3Closes 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+9.0ppVol $2Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $2Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
32%
-1.5ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Sesh nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
+1.0ppVol $0Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.6pp47 markets with notable movementCombined activity $2.1M
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