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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 11% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Last recorded probability
11%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
11%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.0pp, from 12% to 14%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
13%
5 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
13%
5 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
13%
5 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
13%
5 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
14%
5 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
11%
9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| December 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| February 28, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| December 31, 2026 | 11.0% | -0.5pp | $36K | awaiting resolution |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -4.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.