Geopolitics

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

11%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCStable consensus-0.4pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.4pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

11%

24h Change

-0.4pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.4pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 10.9%
No implied probability: 89.0%
Liquidity: $18K
Market Activity: $192K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC

View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

100%

+0.4pp

Vol $1.6MCloses 31 Oct 2026