Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
53%
Limited history+0.5pp
24h activity $689Closes 24 Oct 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a +0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 0.0pp from 1% to 1%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
1%
14 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
1%
14 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
1%
14 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
1%
14 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
15 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
18 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $18K and 24h activity is $26. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 53.0% | +0.5pp | $20K | active |
| Axel Kicillof | 36.5% | — | $7K | active |
| Esteban Bullrich | 0.3% | — | $15K | active |
| Sergio Massa | 6.8% | +0.7pp | $17K | active |
| Myriam Bregman | 1.3% | — | $21K | active |
| Juan Grabois | 0.6% | — | $22K | active |
| Victoria Villarruel | 0.6% | +0.05pp | $18K | active |
| Mauricio Macri | 0.3% | — | $16K | active |
| Dante Gebel | 3.0% | — | $13K | active |
| Juan Schiaretti | 0.3% | — | $18K | active |
| Facundo Manes | 0.3% | — | $14K | active |
Probability sum: 102.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 24 Oct 2027, 00:00 UTC