Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
42%
Limited history
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current
53%
24h Change
+2.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Why this may have moved
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 24 Oct 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
42%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 52.5% | +2.5pp | $12K | active |
| Axel Kicillof | 42.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Mauricio Macri | 0.8% | — | $18K | active |
| Victoria Villarruel | 0.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Dante Gebel | 1.8% | +0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Facundo Manes | 0.3% | — | $17K |
Current implied probability
53%Probability moved up 2.5pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
| active |
| Esteban Bullrich | 0.3% | — | $17K | active |
| Juan Grabois | 1.1% | -0.3pp | $19K | active |
| Juan Schiaretti | 0.3% | — | $17K | active |
| Sergio Massa | 2.0% | +0.3pp | $15K | active |
| Myriam Bregman | 1.1% | -0.5pp | $20K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.