Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
53%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
+0.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 24 Oct 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
53%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 52.5% | +2.5pp | $12K | active |
| Axel Kicillof | 42.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Mauricio Macri | 0.8% | — | $18K | active |
| Victoria Villarruel | 0.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Dante Gebel | 1.8% | +0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Facundo Manes | 0.3% | — | $17K |
Current implied probability
2%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.3pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $15K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
42%
1%
2%
1%
1%
| active |
| Esteban Bullrich | 0.3% | — | $17K | active |
| Juan Grabois | 1.1% | -0.3pp | $19K | active |
| Juan Schiaretti | 0.3% | — | $17K | active |
| Sergio Massa | 2.0% | +0.3pp | $15K | active |
| Myriam Bregman | 1.1% | -0.5pp | $20K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.