Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?
19%
Limited history-6.5pp
24h activity $4KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -4.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
5%
24h Change
-4.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 4.5pp, from 9% to 4%, between 13:00 and 14:00 UTC.
9%
23 Sept 2026, 12:45 UTC
9%
23 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
9%
23 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
9%
23 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
4%
27 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
5%
27 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $10K and 24h activity is $681. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brodie | 18.5% | -6.5pp | $9K | active |
| Roger Stone | 4.5% | -18.0pp | $9K | active |
| Eric Adams | 4.5% | -4.0pp | $10K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 8.5% | -8.5pp | $9K | active |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4.5% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Young Thug | 5.2% | -1.6pp | $9K | active |
| Ryan Salame | 12.0% | -5.0pp | $10K | active |
| Daniel Penny | 3.0% | -5.0pp | $8K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 5.3% | +0.2pp | $9K | active |
| Derek Chauvin | 4.3% | -0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 3.8% | +0.05pp | $27K | active |
| Do Kwon | 2.8% | — | $14K | active |
| Elon Musk | 2.4% | — | $12K | active |
| Martin Shkreli | 4.1% | +0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Diddy | 3.9% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 13.5% | -1.0pp | $9K | active |
| Himself | 3.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Nicolas Maduro | 4.3% | — | $9K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 2.4% | +0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Joe Exotic | 5.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Julian Assange | 5.8% | — | $11K | active |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 4.8% | — | $12K | active |
| Edward Snowden | 3.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Stefan Brodie | 17.5% | — | $8K | active |
| Roger Ver | 3.4% | — | $8K | active |
| Antoine Massey | 3.5% | — | $8K | active |
| Andrew Tate | 3.8% | — | $11K | active |
| Bob Menendez | 5.4% | -0.4pp | $8K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC