Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?
9%
Limited history+1.0pp
24h activity $486Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
3%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.7pp from 3% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
3%
19 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
2%
19 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
2%
19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
2%
19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
3%
22 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
3%
23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $10K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keonne Rodriguez | 8.5% | +1.0pp | $11K | active |
| Bob Menendez | 5.3% | +1.8pp | $13K | active |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 3.3% | +0.05pp | $30K | active |
| Derek Chauvin | 3.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Roger Stone | 3.5% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Donald Brodie | 18.0% | +0.5pp | $358 | active |
| Elon Musk | 2.6% | — | $16K | active |
| Ryan Salame | 12.5% | -0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Diddy | 4.7% | +0.1pp | $16K | active |
| Martin Shkreli | 3.6% | +0.4pp | $13K | active |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4.3% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Do Kwon | 2.8% | — | $18K | active |
| Himself | 3.0% | — | $22K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 8.1% | +0.2pp | $14K | active |
| Nicolas Maduro | 3.4% | — | $13K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 7.0% | +0.5pp | $14K | active |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 5.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Joe Exotic | 4.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 2.2% | — | $11K | active |
| Young Thug | 3.2% | -0.05pp | $10K | active |
| Julian Assange | 3.6% | -0.1pp | $16K | active |
| Stefan Brodie | 19.5% | +4.0pp | $13K | active |
| Edward Snowden | 3.6% | — | $15K | active |
| Roger Ver | 5.3% | — | $13K | active |
| Antoine Massey | 3.1% | +0.05pp | $10K | active |
| Eric Adams | 3.1% | +0.7pp | $11K | active |
| Andrew Tate | 2.5% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Daniel Penny | 6.5% | +2.4pp | $242 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC