Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027?
9%
Limited history-14.0pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 8% probability for this outcome, a -12.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
8%Recent probability movement (down 12.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
8%
24h Change
-12.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 12.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Stone | 8.5% | -14.0pp | $12K | active |
| Donald Brodie | 11.0% | -12.5pp | $9K | active |
| Ryan Salame | 14.0% | -10.5pp | $12K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 8.0% | -12.5pp | $12K | active |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 3.6% | -0.2pp | $33K | active |
| Martin Shkreli | 5.7% | +1.6pp | $15K | active |
| Nicolas Maduro | 2.5% | -2.3pp | $13K | active |
| Young Thug | 7.7% | -3.3pp | $15K | active |
| Diddy | 4.3% | -0.3pp | $19K | active |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 4.8% | +1.6pp | $19K | active |
| Andrew Tate | 4.3% | -0.4pp | $12K | active |
| Edward Snowden | 3.9% | -0.2pp | $18K | active |
| Stefan Brodie | 20.5% | -3.5pp | $11K | active |
| Derek Chauvin | 5.0% | — | $19K | active |
| Elon Musk | 2.4% | +0.7pp | $13K | active |
| Do Kwon | 2.7% | — | $18K | active |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4.4% | -0.2pp | $18K | active |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 14.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Himself | 3.5% | +0.3pp | $20K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 10.7% | +0.8pp | $15K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 2.5% | +0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Joe Exotic | 8.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Julian Assange | 5.0% | +0.2pp | $13K | active |
| Antoine Massey | 3.3% | -0.8pp | $10K | active |
| Roger Ver | 8.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Eric Adams | 8.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Daniel Penny | 10.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Bob Menendez | 5.8% | -0.05pp | $10K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
9%
11%
14%
4%
6%
2%