Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP?
11%
Limited history+1.0pp
24h activity $22KCloses 15 Feb 2027
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Current implied probability
0%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
-0.6pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.6pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $30K and 24h activity is $444. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 10.5% | +1.0pp | $28K | active |
| Jaxson Dart | 1.4% | +0.1pp | $23K | active |
| Lamar Jackson | 11.5% | +2.0pp | $26K | active |
| Caleb Williams | 9.4% | +0.8pp | $25K | active |
| Jalen Hurts | 3.5% | +0.1pp | $32K | active |
| Dak Prescott | 7.8% | -0.1pp | $36K | active |
| Joe Burrow | 8.9% | — | $28K | active |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2.1% | -0.5pp | $28K | active |
| Brock Purdy | 4.0% | -2.1pp | $35K | active |
| Baker Mayfield | 1.8% | — | $27K | active |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1.4% | +0.3pp | $31K | active |
| Josh Allen | 12.5% | — | $26K | active |
| Drake Maye | 8.5% | — | $27K | active |
| Saquon Barkley | 0.5% | -0.6pp | $30K | active |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $24K | active |
| Justin Jefferson | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $36K | active |
| Sam Darnold | 2.1% | -0.2pp | $22K | active |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 0.5% | — | $34K | active |
| Matthew Stafford | 5.5% | -1.0pp | $36K | active |
| De'Von Achane | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $25K | active |
| Jordan Love | 4.2% | — | $20K | active |
| Jared Goff | 1.3% | -0.1pp | $20K | active |
| Myles Garrett | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $28K | active |
| Derrick Henry | 0.3% | — | $25K | active |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6.5% | — | $23K | active |
| Bijan Robinson | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $19K | active |
| Puka Nacua | 0.3% | -0.3pp | $9K | active |
| Player J | 0.4% | — | $7K | active |
| Bo Nix | 2.3% | — | $32K | active |
Probability sum: 108.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 15 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
11%
1%
12%
9%
3%
8%