Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Justin Jefferson win the 2026 NFL MVP?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $2KCloses 15 Feb 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 4% probability for this outcome, a -1.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
4%Recent probability movement (down 1.4pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
4%
24h Change
-1.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 0.5pp from 4% to 4%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
4%
16 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
4%
16 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
4%
16 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
4%
16 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
5%
16 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
4%
20 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.4pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3.5% | -1.4pp | $10K | active |
| Jaxson Dart | 1.4% | -0.3pp | $9K | active |
| Joe Burrow | 5.3% | -0.8pp | $12K | active |
| Justin Herbert | 3.6% | -0.6pp | $9K | active |
| Josh Allen | 25.5% | +1.0pp | $17K | active |
| Bo Nix | 1.6% | — | $9K | active |
| Caleb Williams | 13.8% | -0.6pp | $22K | active |
| Jordan Love | 1.8% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4.5% | +0.1pp | $17K | active |
| Jalen Hurts | 2.3% | -1.0pp | $11K | active |
| Brock Purdy | 4.5% | -0.1pp | $8K | active |
| Matthew Stafford | 2.1% | -1.5pp | $17K | active |
| Drake Maye | 2.1% | -0.3pp | $8K | active |
| Jared Goff | 1.6% | -1.5pp | $11K | active |
| Saquon Barkley | 0.1% | — | $24K | active |
| Baker Mayfield | 0.6% | — | $9K | active |
| Lamar Jackson | 11.5% | -0.5pp | $16K | active |
| Dak Prescott | 2.1% | -0.6pp | $11K | active |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 0.5% | -0.2pp | $22K | active |
| Sam Darnold | 0.3% | — | $12K | active |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 0.3% | — | $26K | active |
| Myles Garrett | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
| Derrick Henry | 0.2% | — | $17K | active |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0.1% | — | $14K | active |
| Player J | 0.1% | — | $6K | active |
| Bijan Robinson | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Puka Nacua | 0.1% | — | $9K | active |
| De'Von Achane | 0.1% | — | $24K | active |
Probability sum: 89.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 15 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC