Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Jaxson Dart win the 2026 NFL MVP?
2%
Limited history+0.7pp
24h activity $2KCloses 15 Feb 2027
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Current implied probability
14%Recent probability movement (up 1.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
14%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 1.8% | +0.7pp | $14K | active |
| Bo Nix | 2.3% | +0.1pp | $22K | active |
| Josh Allen | 13.5% | +1.0pp | $24K | active |
| Dak Prescott | 7.8% | — | $30K | active |
| Brock Purdy | 4.0% | -1.4pp | $25K | active |
| Joe Burrow | 8.9% | — | $23K | active |
| Lamar Jackson | 10.5% | — | $22K | active |
| Justin Herbert | 10.5% | — | $23K | active |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2.0% | -0.1pp | $16K | active |
| Jalen Hurts | 3.5% | +0.3pp | $23K | active |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1.9% | +0.8pp | $24K | active |
| Drake Maye | 7.5% | -1.0pp | $16K | active |
| Saquon Barkley | 0.7% | +0.2pp | $24K | active |
| Baker Mayfield | 1.8% | — | $17K | active |
| Caleb Williams | 9.4% | — | $20K | active |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0.5% | — | $22K | active |
| Justin Jefferson | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $30K | active |
| Sam Darnold | 2.2% | +0.3pp | $17K | active |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $26K | active |
| Matthew Stafford | 5.5% | — | $23K | active |
| De'Von Achane | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Jordan Love | 4.2% | — | $14K | active |
| Jared Goff | 1.3% | — | $14K | active |
| Myles Garrett | 0.3% | +0.05pp | $24K | active |
| Derrick Henry | 0.3% | — | $21K | active |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6.5% | — | $18K | active |
| Bijan Robinson | 0.3% | — | $15K | active |
| Puka Nacua | 0.5% | +0.1pp | $4K | active |
| Player J | 0.4% | +0.2pp | $2K | active |
Probability sum: 108.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 15 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
2%
2%
8%
4%
9%
11%