Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?
21%
Limited history-4.5pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Mar 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a +0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.7pp from 4% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
4%
1 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
4%
1 Oct 2026, 14:27 UTC
4%
1 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
4%
1 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
3%
5 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
3%
5 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 3.0% | +0.05pp | $30K | active |
| Josh Allen | 21.0% | -4.5pp | $7K | active |
| Brock Purdy | 21.1% | +5.0pp | $9K | active |
| Lamar Jackson | 10.0% | -3.0pp | $7K | active |
| Patrick Mahomes | 10.7% | -0.1pp | $7K | active |
| Jalen Hurts | 1.3% | -0.7pp | $10K | active |
| Dak Prescott | 3.3% | +1.6pp | $9K | active |
| Derrick Henry | 0.4% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Joe Burrow | 4.7% | -2.0pp | $10K | active |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7.8% | +2.3pp | $8K | active |
| Drake Maye | 0.6% | -0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Baker Mayfield | 0.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Saquon Barkley | 0.1% | — | $25K | active |
| Justin Herbert | 0.7% | -0.7pp | $9K | active |
| Jaxson Dart | 0.3% | — | $18K | active |
| Matthew Stafford | 2.0% | -0.1pp | $18K | active |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba | 2.3% | +1.1pp | $22K | active |
| Jared Goff | 2.1% | +0.7pp | $10K | active |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1.4% | — | $20K | active |
| Myles Garrett | 0.1% | — | $29K | active |
| Bo Nix | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $7K | active |
| Sam Darnold | 0.3% | — | $14K | active |
| Jordan Love | 1.1% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Justin Jefferson | 0.1% | — | $30K | active |
| Puka Nacua | 0.3% | — | $12K | active |
| De'Von Achane | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
| Player J | 0.3% | — | $4K | active |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Bijan Robinson | 0.3% | — | $7K | active |
Probability sum: 97.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Mar 2027, 04:59 UTC