Politics

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a +0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus+0.05pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

+0.05pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 5.5%
No implied probability: 94.5%
Liquidity: $442K
24h activity: $3K
Lifetime volume: $12.0M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 15 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Gavin Newsom	18.1%	+5.7pp	$405K	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Ruben Gallego	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Kamala Harris	8.1%	-0.2pp	$330K	active
Michelle Obama	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	-0.1pp	$382K	active
Hunter Biden	0.5%	+0.05pp	$1.2M	active
Liz Cheney	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Andy Beshear	2.5%	—	$559K	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Jon Ossoff	15.4%	-0.1pp	$307K	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	19.2%	+1.2pp	$353K	active
Josh Shapiro	6.0%	+0.5pp	$291K	active
Mark Kelly	3.3%	+0.1pp	$348K	active
MrBeast	0.1%	—	$2.6M	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	-0.1pp	$2.6M	active
George Clooney	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Graham Platner	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.5%	+0.05pp	$442K	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Gina Raimondo	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
John Fetterman	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	-0.1pp	$1.5M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
James Talarico	2.4%	—	$242K	active
Roy Cooper	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.7%	-0.05pp	$193K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.5M	active
Bernie Sanders	0.3%	—	$896K	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.6%	-0.05pp	$669K	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Chris Murphy	0.5%	-0.05pp	$1.8M	active
Barack Obama	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.8%	-0.3pp	$834K	active
Wes Moore	1.8%	+0.1pp	$350K	active
Mark Cuban	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Jon Stewart	0.1%	-0.1pp	$301K	active
Ro Khanna	1.6%	—	$280K	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.5%	-0.1pp	$786K	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Jared Polis	0.1%	—	$930K	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$447K	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active

Probability sum: 95.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC