Politics

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus-0.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

-0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 3.6%
No implied probability: 96.3%
Liquidity: $335K
24h activity: $5K
Lifetime volume: $8.7M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 09:01 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
JB Pritzker	0.3%	—	$633K	active
Marco Rubio	12.2%	-0.9pp	$346K	active
Elon Musk	0.7%	—	$1.7M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	11.4%	-1.8pp	$409K	active
JD Vance	22.8%	-0.3pp	$461K	active
Ro Khanna	0.9%	—	$1.0M	active
Jon Ossoff	9.8%	+0.5pp	$426K	active
Wes Moore	0.8%	+0.1pp	$296K	active
Ron DeSantis	1.4%	—	$334K	active
Greg Abbott	0.8%	—	$2.3M	active
Kamala Harris	3.6%	-0.1pp	$335K	active
Gavin Newsom	8.2%	-0.5pp	$480K	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.4%	—	$203K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.1%	—	$289K	active
Jalen Brunson	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
James Talarico	0.7%	+0.1pp	$787K	active
Josh Shapiro	2.5%	—	$460K	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Pete Hegseth	0.3%	—	$2.0M	active
Tucker Carlson	1.6%	—	$375K	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.7%	—	$2.1M	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Stephen Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Thomas Massie	1.1%	—	$351K	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Eric Trump	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
Pete Buttigieg	2.5%	—	$559K	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$1.5M	active
Donald Trump Jr.	0.9%	—	$928K	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Mark Kelly	1.1%	—	$188K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.5%	+0.1pp	$225K	active
Ivanka Trump	0.5%	-0.05pp	$496K	active
Jamie Dimon	0.7%	—	$856K	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Andy Beshear	1.1%	—	$358K	active
Nikki Haley	0.6%	—	$2.2M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.5M	active
Candace Owens	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Donald Trump	2.2%	+0.5pp	$523K	awaiting resolution

Probability sum: 95.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC