Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
23%
Limited history-0.7pp
24h activity $27KCloses 7 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 4% probability for this outcome, a +0.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
4%Recent probability movement (up 0.6pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
4%
24h Change
+0.6pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 4.3% | +0.6pp | $321K | active |
| JD Vance | 23.1% | -0.7pp | $457K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.0% | +0.3pp | $374K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 11.4% | +0.1pp | $248K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.3% | — | $333K | active |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.5% | — | $799K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 1.1% | — | $357K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.4% | — | $346K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 11.6% | — | $349K | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.5% | — | $465K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.6% | — | $539K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.3% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.1% | — | $284K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.9% | — | $223K | active |
| JB Pritzker | 0.3% | — | $539K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.5% | — | $331K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.5% | — | $946K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Stephen Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.8% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.3% | — | $239K | active |
| James Talarico | 0.8% | — | $748K | active |
| Wes Moore | 0.8% | — | $236K | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Ro Khanna | 0.8% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.4% | — | $158K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | — | $329K | active |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Mark Kelly | 1.8% | — | $236K | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.8% | +0.05pp | $612K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 95.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
23%
8%
11%
0%
13%
0%