Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
Limited history-0.7pp
24h activity $112KCloses 1 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
28 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
0%
30 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 0.7% | -0.7pp | $856K | active |
| Pope Leo XIV | 1.1% | — | $49K | active |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 1.3% | +0.05pp | $64K | active |
| Xi Jinping | 0.1% | — | $78K | active |
| Mark Carney | 1.6% | -0.3pp | $19K | active |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 14.9% | +3.4pp | $11K | active |
| Save the Children | 6.8% | -1.6pp | $12K | active |
| UNRWA | 3.7% | -0.8pp | $46K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $127K | active |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 3.7% | -0.6pp | $55K | active |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 3.8% | -1.8pp | $7K | active |
| World Central Kitchen | 1.1% | +0.1pp | $6K | active |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $55K | active |
| Julian Assange | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $34K | active |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 3.5% | -1.3pp | $3K | active |
| Chow Hang-tung | 1.6% | +0.3pp | $6K | active |
| Reporters Without Borders | 2.4% | -0.7pp | $14K | active |
| António Guterres | 1.1% | +0.1pp | $34K | active |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 0.8% | +0.2pp | $5K | active |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 1.4% | +0.05pp | $70K | active |
| International Court of Justice | 5.8% | +0.05pp | $42K | active |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 1.9% | — | $3K | active |
| Charlie Kirk | 0.1% | — | $99K | active |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0.1% | — | $119K | active |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 0.3% | — | $29K | active |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0.1% | — | $73K | active |
| Vladimir Putin | 0.1% | — | $122K | active |
| Khaled Mashal | 0.1% | — | $89K | active |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.1% | — | $91K | active |
| Narendra Modi | 0.1% | — | $99K | active |
| UNHCR | 0.8% | — | $3K | active |
| ICRC | 1.6% | +0.1pp | $4K | active |
Probability sum: 61.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC