EAEventAlpha
Politics

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?

10%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCLow-confidence move-9.0pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

10%

24h Change

-9.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 9.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
9.5%
No implied probability
90.5%
Liquidity
$8K
Market Activity
$20K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and July 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 15 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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