Politics
MediumFresh
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
61%
Vol $27KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 9 of 9 matching politics markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
56%
-0.5ppVol $23KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
44%
+5.0ppVol $23KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-7.0ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.1ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included because probability moved -1.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-1.1ppVol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-1.0ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +20.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
49%
+20.0ppVol $11KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $31.0M
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