Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +2.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
+2.3ppVol $19KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 154 matching politics markets.
Showing 73-108 of 154 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $19KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $19KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $19KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $19KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $19KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $18KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $18KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $18KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $18KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-1.0ppVol $18KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.7pp.
High activity
23%
+0.7ppVol $18KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $18KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $18KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.2pp.
High activity
4%
-0.2ppVol $17KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $17KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $17KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $16KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -8.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-8.0ppVol $16KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $16KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.1ppVol $16KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +4.4pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
6%
+4.4ppVol $15KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
25%
+0.5ppVol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $15KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $14KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Avg 24h move 1.7pp384 markets with notable movementCombined activity $814.9M
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