Politics

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.5%
No implied probability: 99.5%
Liquidity: $2.1M
24h activity: $318
Lifetime volume: $28.0M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 08:02 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Ivanka Trump	0.7%	—	$963K	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$635K	active
J.D. Vance	47.3%	-0.1pp	$346K	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.9%	—	$337K	active
Ron DeSantis	2.9%	-0.1pp	$331K	active
Marco Rubio	22.9%	—	$313K	active
Tucker Carlson	2.6%	—	$294K	active
Joe Kent	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
John Thune	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Nikki Haley	0.3%	—	$1.3M	active
Tom Brady	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Kristi Noem	0.3%	—	$1.9M	active
Elon Musk	0.8%	—	$2.2M	active
Mike Pence	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Donald Trump	2.3%	—	$382K	active
Byron Donalds	0.5%	—	$1.9M	active
Thomas Massie	0.8%	—	$457K	active
Candace Owens	0.3%	—	$1.1M	active
Steve Bannon	0.3%	—	$2.0M	active
Ted Cruz	0.9%	—	$1.1M	active
Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.5%	—	$1.1M	active
Elise Stefanik	0.5%	—	$2.1M	active
Greg Abbott	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
Pete Hegseth	0.3%	—	$2.0M	active
Erika Kirk	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Matt Gaetz	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.5%	—	$1.8M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
Brian Kemp	0.3%	—	$952K	active
Rand Paul	0.5%	—	$1.7M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.9%	—	$771K	active
Josh Hawley	0.3%	—	$1.0M	active
Katie Britt	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.5%	—	$1.5M	active
Donald Trump Jr.	1.6%	+0.05pp	$648K	active
Eric Trump	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.6%	—	$2.3M	active

Probability sum: 93.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC

Limited history

24h activity $10KCloses 7 Nov 2028

Outcome

Probability

24h change

Liquidity

State

Mike Johnson

0.1%

—

$1.1M

active

Rick Scott

0.1%

—

$1.2M

active

Ivanka Trump

0.7%

—

$963K

active

John N. Kennedy

0.1%

—

$1.2M

active

Tim Scott

0.1%

—

$1.2M

active

Doug Burgum

0.1%

—

$1.2M

active

Tom Cotton

0.1%

—

$635K

active

J.D. Vance

47.3%

-0.1pp

$346K

active

Glenn Youngkin

0.9%

—

$337K

active

Ron DeSantis

2.9%

-0.1pp

$331K

active

Marco Rubio

22.9%

—

$313K

active

Tucker Carlson

2.6%

—

$294K

active

Joe Kent

0.3%

—

$1.7M

active

John Thune

0.1%

—

$2.2M

active

Nikki Haley

0.3%

—

$1.3M

active

Tom Brady

0.3%

—

$2.2M

active

Kristi Noem

0.3%

—

$1.9M

active

Elon Musk

0.8%

—

$2.2M

active

Mike Pence

0.3%

—

$2.1M

active

Donald Trump

2.3%

—

$382K

active

Byron Donalds

0.5%

—

$1.9M

active

Thomas Massie

0.8%

—

$457K

active

Candace Owens

0.3%

—

$1.1M

active

Steve Bannon

0.3%

—

$2.0M

active

Ted Cruz

0.9%

—

$1.1M

active

Marjorie Taylor Greene

0.5%

—

$1.1M

active

Elise Stefanik

0.5%

—

$2.1M

active

Greg Abbott

0.6%

—

$1.8M

active

Pete Hegseth

0.3%

—

$2.0M

active

Erika Kirk

0.3%

—

$2.1M

active

Matt Gaetz

0.1%

—

$2.2M

active

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

0.5%

—

$1.8M

active

Kim Kardashian

0.3%

—

$2.3M

active

Brian Kemp

0.3%

—

$952K

active

Rand Paul

0.5%

—

$1.7M

active

Vivek Ramaswamy

0.9%

—

$771K

active

Josh Hawley

0.3%

—

$1.0M

active

Katie Britt

0.3%

—

$2.2M

active

Tulsi Gabbard

0.5%

—

$1.5M

active

Donald Trump Jr.

1.6%

+0.05pp

$648K

active

Eric Trump

0.3%

—

$2.1M

active

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

0.6%

—

$2.3M

active

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC