Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $90KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
23%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
23%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 0.3% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.7% | — | $961K | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | — | $613K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 47.3% | -0.1pp | $336K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.9% | — | $331K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.9% | -0.1pp | $311K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 22.9% | — | $300K | active |
| Joe Kent | 0.3% | — | $1.7M | active |
| John Thune | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.6% | — | $271K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.3% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Tom Brady | 0.3% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Kristi Noem | 0.3% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.5% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.8% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Mike Pence | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Donald Trump | 2.3% | — | $362K | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | — | $438K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 0.3% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.6% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.5% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.3% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | -0.05pp | $629K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 0.3% | — | $942K | active |
| Rand Paul | 0.5% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.9% | — | $768K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.5% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Ted Cruz | 0.9% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Katie Britt | 0.3% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Erika Kirk | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.5% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Josh Hawley | 0.3% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.5% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.6% | — | $2.2M | active |
Probability sum: 93.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%