Politics

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.1%
No implied probability: 99.8%
Liquidity: $1.6M
24h activity: $573
Lifetime volume: $35.4M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 15 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Kamala Harris	4.3%	+0.6pp	$324K	active
JD Vance	23.1%	-0.7pp	$459K	active
Gavin Newsom	8.0%	+0.3pp	$379K	active
Marco Rubio	11.4%	+0.2pp	$254K	active
Elon Musk	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Ron DeSantis	1.9%	—	$224K	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	13.3%	—	$334K	active
Jamie Dimon	0.5%	—	$798K	active
Andy Beshear	1.1%	—	$354K	active
Tucker Carlson	1.4%	—	$346K	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Jon Ossoff	11.6%	—	$348K	active
Ivanka Trump	0.5%	—	$468K	active
Michelle Obama	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Pete Buttigieg	2.6%	—	$546K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.3%	—	$1.2M	active
Raphael Warnock	0.1%	—	$284K	active
JB Pritzker	0.3%	—	$545K	active
Josh Shapiro	3.5%	—	$355K	active
Donald Trump Jr.	0.5%	—	$947K	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Nikki Haley	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Stephen Smith	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Greg Abbott	0.8%	—	$2.2M	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.3%	—	$244K	active
James Talarico	0.8%	—	$749K	active
Wes Moore	0.8%	—	$237K	active
Eric Trump	0.1%	—	$2.3M	active
Ro Khanna	0.8%	—	$1.0M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.4%	—	$161K	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Pete Hegseth	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Thomas Massie	0.8%	—	$331K	active
Jalen Brunson	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Mark Kelly	1.8%	—	$236K	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$1.5M	active
Candace Owens	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Donald Trump	1.8%	+0.05pp	$618K	awaiting resolution

Probability sum: 95.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC