Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
44%
+5.0ppVol $23KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 5 of 5 matching politics markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -8.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-8.0ppVol $16KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.1ppVol $16KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +19.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
48%
+19.0ppVol $12KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp384 markets with notable movementCombined activity $1.9M
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