EAEventAlpha
Geopolitics

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?

16%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCMeaningful move+8.5pp (24h)

Probability moved up 8.5pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.

Signal: High

Current

16%

24h Change

+8.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 8.5pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
15.5%
No implied probability
84.5%
Liquidity
$6K
Market Activity
$14K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:37 UTC

AI brief may be stale. Current market metrics are shown above.

What this market asks

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?

Current market read

AI summary is unavailable because stored summary data is older than the latest market metrics. Current market metrics are shown above.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+1.png Intersection Location in Havrylivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+2.png Havrylivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Havrylivka+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

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