Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1%
Limited history-0.4pp
24h activity $291KCloses 1 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 2% probability for this outcome, a +0.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
2%Recent probability movement (up 0.4pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
2%
24h Change
+0.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
34
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.6pp, from 6% to 3%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC.
5%
30 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
3%
1 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
3%
1 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
3%
1 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
2%
2 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.4pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 0.8% | -0.4pp | $685K | active |
| Pope Leo XIV | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $46K | active |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 1.2% | -0.05pp | $66K | active |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 0.1% | -0.2pp | $41K | active |
| Mark Carney | 1.5% | +0.4pp | $45K | active |
| Narendra Modi | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $111K | active |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 15.3% | +3.6pp | $11K | active |
| Save the Children | 6.5% | -2.9pp | $12K | active |
| UNRWA | 3.8% | -0.7pp | $46K | active |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 3.7% | -0.6pp | $57K | active |
| Xi Jinping | 0.1% | — | $70K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $142K | active |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 3.6% | -2.3pp | $8K | active |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.1% | — | $54K | active |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 3.4% | -1.4pp | $3K | active |
| António Guterres | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $35K | active |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 1.4% | +0.05pp | $69K | active |
| Chow Hang-tung | 1.6% | -0.3pp | $6K | active |
| Reporters Without Borders | 2.4% | -0.7pp | $13K | active |
| International Court of Justice | 5.8% | -0.3pp | $40K | active |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 1.9% | — | $3K | active |
| Charlie Kirk | 0.1% | — | $100K | active |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0.1% | — | $119K | active |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0.1% | — | $73K | active |
| Vladimir Putin | 0.1% | — | $136K | active |
| Khaled Mashal | 0.1% | — | $103K | active |
| Julian Assange | 0.3% | — | $34K | active |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.1% | — | $91K | active |
| UNHCR | 0.8% | — | $3K | active |
| World Central Kitchen | 1.1% | +0.1pp | $6K | active |
| ICRC | 1.6% | +0.05pp | $4K | active |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 0.9% | -0.05pp | $5K | active |
Probability sum: 61.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC