Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?
23%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
5%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
5%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
23%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Salame | 23.0% | — | $16K | active |
| Stefan Brodie | 30.0% | +11.5pp | $2K | active |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 15.0% | +5.0pp | $10K | active |
| Do Kwon | 2.7% | +1.6pp | $14K | active |
| Julian Assange | 6.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 5.0% | — | $31K |
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $7K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
30%
15%
3%
7%
5%
| active |
| Matt Gaetz | 22.5% | +1.5pp | $11K | active |
| Daniel Penny | 30.5% | +3.0pp | $97 | active |
| Eric Adams | 11.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 8.7% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Antoine Massey | 9.9% | — | $9K | active |
| Martin Shkreli | 10.5% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Bob Menendez | 5.4% | +0.1pp | $9K | active |
| Andrew Tate | 4.5% | -0.5pp | $7K | active |
| Joe Exotic | 9.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Elon Musk | 3.2% | — | $12K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 1.8% | +1.0pp | $10K | active |
| Edward Snowden | 2.5% | +0.2pp | $10K | active |
| Roger Stone | 15.0% | — | $10K | active |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 6.5% | -0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Donald Brodie | 45.0% | +4.0pp | $218 | active |
| Derek Chauvin | 4.8% | — | $16K | active |
| Diddy | 3.5% | -0.05pp | $17K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 12.7% | -0.05pp | $14K | active |
| Nicolas Maduro | 4.0% | — | $15K | active |
| Himself | 5.5% | -0.3pp | $20K | active |
| Young Thug | 3.3% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Roger Ver | 7.5% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.