Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
22%
Limited history+1.0pp
24h activity $644Closes 2 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 22% probability for this outcome, a +6.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
22%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
22%
24h Change
+6.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 27.0pp, from 7% to 34%, between 01:00 and 02:00 UTC.
7%
29 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
7%
29 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
7%
29 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
7%
29 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
34%
1 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
22%
3 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 6.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h activity is $206. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Jong Un | 21.5% | +1.0pp | $22K | active |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 68.5% | -6.0pp | $12K | active |
| King Mohammed VI | 22.0% | +6.0pp | $11K | active |
| Changpeng Zhao | 11.5% | — | $20K | active |
| Aleksandr Lukashenko | 14.0% | -1.5pp | $11K | active |
| Vladimir Putin | 80.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Yoon Suk Yeol | 2.0% | — | $22K | active |
| Nick Fuentes | 1.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 4.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Lai Ching-te | 3.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Pope Leo XIV | 3.5% | — | $17K | active |
| iShowSpeed | 3.9% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| MrBeast | 7.5% | -0.5pp | $16K | active |
| Nicolás Maduro | 4.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ali Khamenei | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Abdel Fattah El-Sisi | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Friedrich Merz | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Maria Corina Machado | 100.0% | +0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Javier Milei | 100.0% | +6.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Xi Jinping | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 100.0% | +3.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 100.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Keir Starmer | 100.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Giorgia Meloni | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lula da Silva | 100.0% | +0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC