Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
15%
Limited history+1.5pp
24h activity $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
26%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
26%
24h Change
+1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $849 and 24h activity is $100. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Jong Un | 15.0% | +1.5pp | $21K | active |
| Aleksandr Lukashenko | 28.0% | +4.0pp | $4K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 5.5% | -1.0pp | $20K | active |
| Pope Leo XIV | 8.5% | -2.0pp | $18K | active |
| Vladimir Putin | 43.5% | +4.5pp | $39K | active |
| Changpeng Zhao | 26.0% | +1.5pp | $849 | active |
| King Mohammed VI | 18.5% | -0.5pp | $404 | active |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 19.0% | -14.0pp | $12K | active |
| Yoon Suk Yeol | 4.8% | — | $31K | active |
| Nick Fuentes | 7.3% | — | $20K | active |
| Lai Ching-te | 3.5% | — | $18K | active |
| iShowSpeed | 7.3% | -0.5pp | $14K | active |
| MrBeast | 10.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Nicolás Maduro | 5.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 64.0% | — | $4K | active |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ali Khamenei | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Abdel Fattah El-Sisi | 100.0% | +1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Friedrich Merz | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Maria Corina Machado | 100.0% | +0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Javier Milei | 100.0% | +6.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Xi Jinping | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 100.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Keir Starmer | 100.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Giorgia Meloni | 100.0% | +1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lula da Silva | 100.0% | +0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
15%
28%
6%
9%
44%
19%