Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
94%
Limited history+9.0pp
24h activity $17KCloses 5 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
0%
18 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
0%
18 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
0%
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
0%
19 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
0%
19 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
0%
23 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul St-Pierre Plamondon | 93.5% | +9.0pp | $46K | active |
| Christine Fréchette | 4.0% | -5.3pp | $61K | active |
| Charles Milliard | 2.1% | -0.5pp | $57K | active |
| Bernard Drainville | 0.1% | — | $21K | active |
| Sol Zanetti | 0.1% | — | $36K | active |
| Éric Duhaime | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Ruba Ghazal | 0.1% | — | $41K | active |
Probability sum: 99.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC