Politics
LowMarket data current
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
1%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
14%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul St-Pierre Plamondon | 70.0% | — | $5K | active |
| Christine Fréchette | 14.3% | +0.05pp | $20K | active |
| Éric Duhaime | 0.1% | — | $16K | active |
| Ruba Ghazal | 0.6% | — | $13K | active |
| Sol Zanetti | 0.2% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Charles Milliard | 13.0% | — | $16K |
Current implied probability
14%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.
Signal: LowThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $20K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
70%
0%
13%
0%
1%
| active |
| Bernard Drainville | 0.6% | — | $12K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.