Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
38%
Limited history+3.6pp
24h activity $303KCloses 8 Nov 2028
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.1pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
2 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC
0%
2 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC
0%
2 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC
0%
2 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC
0%
5 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
0%
6 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 37.5% | +3.6pp | $347K | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $366K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 19.1% | +0.9pp | $261K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 13.9% | -0.4pp | $213K | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $958K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.5% | +0.1pp | $819K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Rand Paul | 0.5% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | +0.1pp | $583K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 3.4% | +2.0pp | $154K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 1.6% | +0.3pp | $170K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1% | — | $768K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $574K | active |
| Mike Pence | 0.1% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | — | $308K | active |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $556K | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.3% | — | $586K | active |
| Thomas Massie | 2.3% | +0.2pp | $167K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.5% | +0.5pp | $193K | active |
| John McEntee | 2.7% | +2.4pp | $114K | active |
| Katie Britt | 0.3% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.6% | +0.1pp | $212K | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1% | — | $517K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $922K | active |
| Donald Trump | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $434K | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.3% | — | $187K | active |
| Josh Hawley | 0.3% | — | $459K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | — | $383K | active |
| Joe Kent | 0.9% | -1.4pp | $234K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.3% | +0.05pp | $715K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Kristi Noem | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| John Thune | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $876K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | -0.05pp | $384K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $718K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.3% | — | $350K | active |
| Tom Brady | 0.1% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $1.4M | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.3% | -0.3pp | $377K | active |
Probability sum: 99.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC