Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
Limited history+0.1pp
24h activity $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
0%
15 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
0%
15 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
0%
15 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
0%
15 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
0%
15 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
0%
19 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | 2.9% | +0.1pp | $365K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 15.5% | -0.3pp | $291K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 51.3% | — | $287K | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | — | $606K | active |
| Donald Trump | 2.0% | +0.05pp | $307K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $243K | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Mike Pence | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Joe Kent | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.3% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.3% | — | $933K | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.7% | — | $372K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9% | — | $761K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $1.9M | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.3% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | — | $835K | active |
| Rand Paul | 0.2% | -0.05pp | $1.4M | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $1.8M | active |
| Josh Hawley | 0.3% | — | $955K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.5% | — | $218K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Kristi Noem | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Ted Cruz | 1.8% | — | $766K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 0.3% | — | $754K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Katie Britt | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.3% | — | $672K | active |
| John Thune | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Tom Brady | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $2.1M | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | — | $140K | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
Probability sum: 85.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC