Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?
4%
Limited history-0.1pp
24h activity $362Closes 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 4% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
4%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
4%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 4% to 4%, gradually rather than in one jump.
4%
19 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
4%
19 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
4%
19 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
4%
19 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
4%
19 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
4%
23 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro | 4.4% | -0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 14.0% | — | $16K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2.3% | — | $15K | active |
| Donald Trump | 3.1% | -0.3pp | $20K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 28.1% | +1.5pp | $1K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 18.6% | -1.1pp | $11K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 4.3% | +0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 5.7% | +0.2pp | $16K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 14.8% | +0.2pp | $13K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 7.2% | +0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 4.5% | +0.3pp | $15K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10.5% | -1.5pp | $15K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 3.2% | — | $13K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 6.0% | — | $15K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 3.4% | — | $14K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 4.3% | — | $13K | active |
| MrBeast | 1.8% | — | $10K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 4.3% | -0.3pp | $14K | active |
| Erika Kirk | 4.2% | +0.6pp | $11K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 8.6% | +0.4pp | $15K | active |
| Katie Britt | 2.1% | -0.1pp | $17K | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 3.6% | — | $16K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 3.0% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Rand Paul | 6.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 3.3% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.6% | — | $13K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 2.5% | +0.8pp | $13K | active |
| Cory Booker | 7.0% | — | $15K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 9.3% | +0.7pp | $13K | active |
| LeBron James | 2.2% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 1.4% | — | $15K | active |
| Mike Pence | 2.1% | -0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 2.7% | — | $15K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 1.3% | — | $11K | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1.1% | — | $15K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 10.7% | +0.2pp | $14K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 4.2% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Candace Owens | 3.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 6.7% | — | $13K | active |
| Barack Obama | 2.7% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.3% | — | $14K | active |
| Elon Musk | 3.5% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Tom Brady | 4.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3.6% | -0.6pp | $13K | active |
| Josh Hawley | 5.4% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1.4% | — | $11K | active |
| John Fetterman | 3.4% | -0.4pp | $10K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 1.4% | — | $13K | active |
| Wes Moore | 3.3% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Tim Walz | 1.4% | — | $10K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7.5% | +0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 2.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2.0% | -0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Jared Polis | 2.8% | +0.8pp | $14K | active |
| George Clooney | 4.5% | — | $17K | active |
| John Thune | 3.3% | — | $13K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 3.6% | +0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 5.2% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 5.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 11.8% | -1.8pp | $13K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 3.8% | — | $13K | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 3.4% | -0.8pp | $10K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 9.3% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 2.4% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 4.7% | +0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 9.5% | — | $15K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 6.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 3.2% | +0.7pp | $11K | active |
| Liz Cheney | 3.0% | -0.2pp | $10K | active |
| Don Lemon | 6.7% | — | $15K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC