Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
17%
Limited history-1.1pp
24h activity $4KCloses 14 Sept 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -0.2pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
-0.2pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.5pp from 0% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
13 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
0%
13 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
0%
13 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC
0%
13 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
1%
13 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $55K and 24h activity is $428. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulf Kristersson | 16.7% | -1.1pp | $70K | active |
| Magdalena Andersson | 78.5% | — | $133K | active |
| Jimmie Åkesson | 0.8% | -0.2pp | $55K | active |
| Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist | 1.8% | -0.1pp | $42K | active |
| Ebba Busch | 3.1% | +0.3pp | $37K | active |
| Nooshi Dadgostar | 0.1% | — | $153K | active |
| Simona Mohamsson | 0.1% | — | $120K | active |
| Daniel Helldén | 0.1% | — | $167K | active |
| Anna-Karin Hatt | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Amanda Lind | 0.1% | — | $179K | active |
Probability sum: 101.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 14 Sept 2026, 03:59 UTC