EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

1%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCStable consensus-0.05pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

1%

24h Change

-0.05pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.8%
No implied probability
99.2%
Liquidity
$271K
Market Activity
$6.1M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC

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