Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
7%
Limited history
24h activity $568Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 4% probability for this outcome, a +0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
4%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
4%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 0.4pp from 4% to 4%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
4%
17 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
4%
17 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
4%
17 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
4%
17 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
8%
17 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
4%
21 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $9K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 6.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 2.8% | -0.1pp | $16K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 4.0% | — | $10K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 9.8% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| J.D. Vance | 6.7% | +1.6pp | $9K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 3.5% | -0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 5.5% | +0.05pp | $17K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 2.6% | — | $8K | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 7.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 6.2% | -0.05pp | $10K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 3.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 3.5% | -0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 4.2% | — | $10K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 12.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Donald Trump | 5.5% | -0.1pp | $19K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 7.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.8% | — | $10K | active |
| MrBeast | 2.3% | — | $12K | active |
| Erika Kirk | 3.5% | -0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Katie Britt | 1.7% | +0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 0.3% | — | $15K | active |
| Rand Paul | 4.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 3.9% | +0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 7.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 2.4% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4.0% | -0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Cory Booker | 5.7% | — | $12K | active |
| LeBron James | 2.5% | +0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.9% | — | $11K | active |
| Mike Pence | 2.7% | -0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 2.9% | — | $12K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 1.4% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.9% | — | $12K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 3.0% | +0.3pp | $9K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Barack Obama | 2.1% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.8% | -0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.9% | -0.3pp | $10K | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 4.8% | — | $10K | active |
| Elon Musk | 3.1% | +0.05pp | $8K | active |
| Tom Brady | 3.0% | -0.4pp | $10K | active |
| Candace Owens | 3.9% | — | $12K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 5.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.8% | -0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Josh Hawley | 2.3% | — | $10K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 5.5% | — | $10K | active |
| John Fetterman | 3.1% | +0.4pp | $8K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 1.2% | +0.1pp | $9K | active |
| Wes Moore | 3.4% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 7.5% | +0.1pp | $16K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 1.5% | -0.1pp | $8K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Jared Polis | 2.0% | — | $10K | active |
| Tim Walz | 1.6% | — | $9K | active |
| George Clooney | 5.5% | — | $12K | active |
| John Thune | 3.5% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Brian Kemp | 4.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 6.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 3.8% | — | $16K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 1.6% | -0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 4.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 3.8% | -0.3pp | $9K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 4.0% | — | $8K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 1.8% | — | $9K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 6.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 7.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 6.5% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Liz Cheney | 3.5% | +0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Don Lemon | 7.4% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 8.0% | +0.4pp | $8K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC