Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $151KCloses 7 Nov 2028
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Current implied probability
10%Recent probability movement (up 0.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
10%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JB Pritzker | 0.3% | — | $652K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 12.2% | -0.9pp | $346K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.7% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12.7% | -0.7pp | $426K | active |
| JD Vance | 23.1% | — | $457K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 9.8% | +0.5pp | $443K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 0.9% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.6% | +0.1pp | $387K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.4% | — | $357K | active |
| Wes Moore | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $298K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.1% | — | $308K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 3.6% | -0.1pp | $344K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.3% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.8% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.2% | -0.6pp | $501K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.5% | — | $471K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.4% | — | $222K | active |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $376K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.9% | — | $932K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.4% | +0.05pp | $243K | active |
| Stephen Smith | 0.3% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.3% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.7% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.7% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.3% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.3% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $514K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.5% | — | $580K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.7% | — | $859K | active |
| James Talarico | 0.6% | — | $800K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.6% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Andy Beshear | 1.1% | — | $366K | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Mark Kelly | 1.1% | — | $193K | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Donald Trump | 2.1% | +0.4pp | $553K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 96.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
12%
1%
13%
23%
1%