Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
14%
Limited history+0.7pp
24h activity $198KCloses 19 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 11% probability for this outcome, a -1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
11%Probability is barely changed (down 1.0pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
11%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 2.0pp from 13% to 11%, gradually rather than in one jump.
13%
7 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
13%
7 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
13%
7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
13%
7 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
12%
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
11%
11 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Lisnard | 14.1% | +0.7pp | $387K | active |
| Édouard Philippe | 23.5% | +1.5pp | $189K | active |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2.6% | +1.1pp | $329K | active |
| Marine Le Pen | 38.9% | -1.3pp | $558K | active |
| François Ruffin | 0.1% | — | $355K | active |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 10.5% | -1.0pp | $583K | active |
| François Hollande | 3.1% | -0.1pp | $168K | active |
| Gabriel Attal | 2.0% | -0.3pp | $289K | active |
| Christine Lagarde | 0.7% | +0.1pp | $165K | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $310K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.1% | — | $944K | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0.3% | — | $241K | active |
| Karim Bouamrane | 0.1% | — | $966K | active |
| Jordan Bardella | 0.6% | — | $231K | active |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.9% | — | $256K | active |
| François Asselineau | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $68K | active |
| Ségolène Royal | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $135K | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.1% | — | $191K | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.5% | — | $315K | active |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1.1% | — | $343K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $92K | active |
| Jean Castex | 0.1% | — | $58K | active |
| Fabien Roussel | 0.1% | — | $508K | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 0.1% | — | $611K | active |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0.1% | — | $722K | active |
| François Bayrou | 0.1% | — | $627K | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.1% | — | $465K | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 0.1% | — | $610K | active |
| Michel Barnier | 0.1% | — | $597K | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 0.1% | — | $234K | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 0.1% | — | $608K | active |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.1% | — | $427K | active |
| Carole Delga | 0.1% | — | $615K | active |
| Clémence Guetté | 0.1% | — | $630K | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 0.1% | — | $613K | active |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1% | — | $568K | active |
| Juan Branco | 0.1% | — | $124K | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 0.1% | — | $363K | active |
| François Baroin | 0.1% | — | $40K | active |
| Yannick Jadot | 0.1% | — | $541K | active |
| Marion Maréchal | 0.1% | — | $455K | active |
| Lucie Castets | 0.1% | — | $541K | active |
Probability sum: 101.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC