Politics

Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.3%
No implied probability: 99.7%
Liquidity: $657K
24h activity: $151K
Lifetime volume: $12.8M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 04:03 UTC

Verify on Polymarket

Investigate pack

Everything you need before opening Polymarket

Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.

Verify on Polymarket ↗Back to markets

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
JB Pritzker	0.3%	—	$657K	active
Marco Rubio	12.2%	-0.9pp	$350K	active
Elon Musk	0.7%	—	$1.7M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	11.4%	-1.9pp	$434K	active
JD Vance	23.1%	—	$478K	active
Jon Ossoff	9.8%	+0.5pp	$443K	active
Ro Khanna	0.9%	—	$1.1M	active
Tucker Carlson	1.6%	+0.1pp	$385K	active
Ron DeSantis	1.4%	—	$364K	active
Wes Moore	0.8%	+0.1pp	$302K	active
Greg Abbott	0.8%	—	$2.3M	active
Kamala Harris	3.6%	-0.1pp	$344K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.1%	—	$312K	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.4%	—	$224K	active
Gavin Newsom	8.3%	-0.5pp	$508K	active
Pete Hegseth	0.3%	—	$2.0M	active
James Talarico	0.6%	+0.05pp	$806K	active
Josh Shapiro	2.5%	—	$470K	active
Jalen Brunson	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Thomas Massie	1.1%	-0.05pp	$381K	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Donald Trump Jr.	0.9%	—	$933K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.5%	+0.1pp	$244K	active
Stephen Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$1.5M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Eric Trump	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
Pete Buttigieg	2.5%	—	$584K	active
Ivanka Trump	0.5%	-0.05pp	$501K	active
Jamie Dimon	0.7%	—	$860K	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Mark Kelly	1.1%	—	$190K	active
Nikki Haley	0.6%	—	$2.2M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Andy Beshear	1.1%	—	$367K	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.5M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Candace Owens	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Donald Trump	2.1%	+0.4pp	$557K	awaiting resolution

Probability sum: 95.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC