Politics

Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.3%
No implied probability: 99.8%
Liquidity: $855K
24h activity: $200K
Lifetime volume: $861K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 14 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Candace Owens	0.3%	—	$855K	active
Steve Bannon	0.3%	—	$1.9M	active
Mike Pence	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Marco Rubio	16.4%	-1.1pp	$308K	active
J.D. Vance	51.3%	+0.3pp	$347K	active
Katie Britt	0.1%	-0.1pp	$2.0M	active
Donald Trump	1.9%	—	$338K	active
Thomas Massie	0.7%	+0.1pp	$419K	active
Josh Hawley	0.3%	—	$984K	active
Kristi Noem	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Ron DeSantis	2.4%	—	$386K	active
Pete Hegseth	0.5%	—	$1.8M	active
Tucker Carlson	3.6%	+0.1pp	$250K	active
Rand Paul	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Ted Cruz	1.8%	+0.1pp	$758K	active
Byron Donalds	0.3%	—	$2.0M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.3%	—	$717K	active
Brian Kemp	0.3%	—	$808K	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.3M	active
Donald Trump Jr.	1.6%	—	$582K	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.4%	-0.1pp	$954K	active
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.3%	+0.05pp	$995K	active
Greg Abbott	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Ivanka Trump	0.8%	—	$765K	active
Joe Kent	0.1%	—	$1.5M	active
Tom Brady	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Elise Stefanik	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Nikki Haley	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Eric Trump	0.2%	—	$1.6M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$123K	active
John Thune	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Elon Musk	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Matt Gaetz	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Erika Kirk	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.5%	—	$260K	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.0M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active

Probability sum: 86.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC