Finance
Signal: LowMarket data current
Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?
15%
Limited history
24h activity $24Closes 8 Apr 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.2pp from 1% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
15 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
15 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
1%
15 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
1%
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
1%
16 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
0%
20 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 Meeting | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $91K | active |
| March 2027 Meeting | 14.5% | — | $13K | active |
| December 2026 Meeting | 2.4% | +0.1pp | $54K | active |
| January 2027 Meeting | 4.5% | — | $26K | active |
| July 2027 Meeting | 50.0% | -1.0pp | $9K | active |
| April 2027 Meeting | 32.0% | — | $7K | active |
| June 2027 Meeting | 32.5% | +3.5pp | $5K | active |
| January Meeting | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| June Meeting | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 2026 Meeting | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July Meeting | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| April Meeting | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| March Meeting | 0.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 29 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC