Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?
5%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $3KCloses 8 Feb 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 31% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
31%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
31%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 6.5pp, from 36% to 30%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.
36%
17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
36%
17 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
36%
17 Oct 2026, 11:36 UTC
36%
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
30%
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
31%
21 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2027 Meeting | 4.7% | +0.3pp | $16K | active |
| December 2026 Meeting | 2.5% | +0.2pp | $59K | active |
| October 2026 Meeting | 0.3% | — | $89K | active |
| July 2027 Meeting | 50.0% | — | $9K | active |
| March 2027 Meeting | 14.5% | — | $16K | active |
| April 2027 Meeting | 29.5% | +0.5pp | $7K | active |
| June 2027 Meeting | 31.0% | — | $5K | active |
| January Meeting | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| June Meeting | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 2026 Meeting | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July Meeting | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| April Meeting | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| March Meeting | 0.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2027, currently scheduled for June 8 to 9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC