Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
3%
Limited history+0.05pp
24h activity $3KCloses 29 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 32% probability for this outcome, a +2.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
32%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
32%
24h Change
+2.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.5pp from 33% to 32%, gradually rather than in one jump.
33%
18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
32%
18 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
32%
18 Oct 2026, 12:03 UTC
33%
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
29%
19 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
32%
22 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $6K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2026 Meeting | 2.5% | +0.05pp | $52K | active |
| March 2027 Meeting | 13.0% | -1.5pp | $10K | active |
| October 2026 Meeting | 0.3% | — | $88K | active |
| January 2027 Meeting | 6.5% | +1.9pp | $7K | active |
| July 2027 Meeting | 51.5% | +1.5pp | $9K | active |
| April 2027 Meeting | 32.0% | +2.5pp | $6K | active |
| June 2027 Meeting | 30.5% | -0.5pp | $5K | active |
| January Meeting | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| June Meeting | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 2026 Meeting | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July Meeting | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| April Meeting | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| March Meeting | 0.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2027, currently scheduled for April 27 to 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 May 2027, 03:59 UTC